The Greens are looking strong in the polls; can they win in the German Election?

After thousands of miserable news reports, frightening graphs, and disheartening political events (which only served as a reminder of the increasingly disastrous climate crisis) barraged me for what felt like a lifetime, I expected nothing else but the usual anxiety shot when I opened the digital app of the German paper “Der Spiegel” on the morning of April 26. But I entered a different kind of state of shock when I read the top title: “Grüne überholen Union deutlich” (The Greens amply overtake the Union). It was only a few minutes later that I understood what this meant: the Greens, a German political party with an emphasis on environmentalism, had pulled ahead of the conservative Christian Democratic Union in the polls. If Germans had voted that day, the Greens would have been the biggest party in the Bundestag (German parliament). Immediately, a rush of excitement overcame me as I fantasized about what a plurality of the Greens could mean. I didn’t have time to realize that a plurality didn’t mean a majority, or that these polls were not election results, as I was already hastily calling my grandfather in Germany who seemed to be in the same euphoric state of mind. 

The Bundestag is the governing body of Germany, and it is composed of multiple parties. Every four years, Germans cast two votes, one for a candidate in their constituency and one for a political party, in order to decide which politicians and parties will be represented in the Bundestag. The Greens, or “Alliance 90/The Greens” officially, formed in the early 1990s after various ideologically “green” parties, most of which were born out of the environmental movements of the 1980s, merged together. Most often categorized as a center-left party, the Greens have paired environmentalism with an emphasis on equality, social justice, increased spending for welfare, as well as strong support for the European Union. Although the party has been represented in the Bundestag since the late 1990s, I never saw the party rise to the prominence that they seemed, at least in my eyes, destined to acquire in these times. When I was born in Berlin in 2004, the Greens held around 8% of the seats– today they hold 8.9%. Over the course of a decade, in which environmental problems and consciousness alike skyrocketed, the Greens’ representation in the Bundestag has remained stagnant. 

In the year prior to the Bundestag election of 2017, the outlook for the Greens was promising; they were up in the polls, and the two biggest parties– the conservative CDU (whose leader is the German chancellor Angela Merkel) and the progressive SPD– were plagued by low opinion polls and leadership troubles. However, when the results came in that September, they were, at best, disappointing. Though the two biggest parties did collectively lose over 10% of their representation, they were grabbed up by the far-right, nationalist party AfD, as well as the center-right party FDP, both of whom went from having no representation in the around 600-seat Bundestag to winning more than 170 seats together. The strong nationalist and right-wing movements that had sprung up all across the world had also reached Germany, while the Greens were left with a minimal 0.5% increase. 

This far-right sentiment has not lessened in recent years, and the huge discrepancy between polls and actual election results exhibited in various recent elections leads the pessimistic inner me to fear that the Greens might again meet their demise of 2017. However, there are signs that 2021 will be different. The concrete evidence is there: in the 2019 European Parliament elections, the Greens became the second-largest party with an increase of 10% from the previous election. Since 2017, the Greens have increased their representation in nine of the 16 state governments, and they currently head the government of Germany’s third most populous state, Baden-Württemberg with around 37% of the seats. Then, there is the fact that environmental issues and movements have become extremely relevant, even mainstream in the past four years. It is that mainstream exposure and success which the Greens have lacked all these years— now they may finally have it. And the heightened relevancy of environmental issues can largely be attributed to young people, more and more of whom can head to the polls. According to Bundeszentrale für Politische Bildung, the Greens received the most votes from 18-24 year-olds in 2019. Finally, the past years have seen the Greens move away from the image of being an entirely environment-focused party, to one centered around a pragmatic, comprehensive approach to German politics. The party’s candidate for chancellor, Annalena Baerbock, reiterated this stance when explaining the campaign platform in an interview with Phoenix, a German public broadcast service: “Environmental protection, a strong economy, and social justice, are closely linked [in the Greens’ campaign platform].”

There are different factors that led to the spike in the polls for the Greens, factors that could still affect the Greens’ fate for the better or worse. The CDU (center-right) was involved in a damaging leadership blunder in April, but has now decided on their candidate for chancellor, and the support for the SPD (left) is falling further. Furthermore, the Greens have two charismatic, young leaders, Annalena Baerbock (if elected, she would be the youngest chancellor after the Second World War) and Robert Habeck, who have broad appeal. You may have noticed by now that I am very much in support of the Greens. If I were old enough in September, I would vote for the Greens, not necessarily because I love its leadership, or because I have become disenchanted with other parties, but because the self-induced environmental havoc and climate change we are facing today threatens us all. Unlike other parties, the Greens have recognized that fact from the beginning, and they have a coherent plan to address these issues. It is time for them to head Germany and correct its course in the fight against the environmental crisis.