Endless Occupation – the real reason we must leave Afghanistan
President Joe Biden’s announcement that all US troops will be withdrawn from Afghanistan should not come as a surprise. As the President has correctly argued, there is no military solution to the armed conflict that has cost the United States almost $2 trillion and more than 2,400 American lives. Even so, the coalition’s withdrawal has been under the microscope of establishment media and politicians, who seek to scrutinize every ostensible fault in the timeline for the drawdown of troops.
We must remember that the original mission objectives of Afghanistan have been achieved. Osama bin Laden was killed in May 2011 and the safe haven for Al Qaeda has been destroyed. The United States’ own intelligence reports show that there are less than 200 Al Qaeda operatives in Afghanistan.
I can understand the concern of those who believe Afghanistan requires an enduring coalition presence to deter acts of international terrorism that derive from Afghanistan. However, there are issues with the credibility of this claim.
Further to the minuscule presence of Al Qaeda, in the February 2020 US-Taliban peace agreement the Taliban vowed to end its accommodation of external terror cells. Similarly, should the US remain in Afghanistan for this reason, it would provide the precedent to invade terrorist hotspots such as Syria, Yemen, Pakistan, Somalia, and Nigeria. This reasoning is not logical and will lead to endless interventionism.
The mandate for the Afghanistan war has concluded. Some against the withdrawal argue that the US is turning its back on the Afghani people. But have they considered what the Afghanis want for their own country or the consequences of continued external occupation? What is the end state that warrants withdrawal? How much longer should we remain there? One more year? A decade? Forever?
Taliban control of Afghanistan, by district, as of March 2021.
There is no such solution that does not have the US locked into perpetual involvement in the Middle East. And the Afghani people agree. 80% believe a diplomatic solution is the only method to end the conflict. For this reason, 46% desire the withdrawal of NATO and US forces, while only 33% want to remain.
The question of the vacuum created by the withdrawal of troops is fraught. Despite continued Western occupation, the Taliban appears to remain resolute in its insurgency. Almost 20% of Afghani districts are controlled by the Taliban, and including contested areas, reports show that the Taliban is active in 70% of the country. The effectiveness of the NATO military occupation in assisting the Afghan Government to establish political and territorial sovereignty has been unsuccessful. Just 33% of districts are government-controlled after 20 years of military operations.
The withdrawal of US troops has led many to predict consequences including civil war, the reintroduction of the terrorist haven, and a loss of US credibility. But what would the continuation of the military presence change should forces leave in a decade’s time? Or is the argument that we should never leave? This is an unacceptable premise that involves more lives and capital being thrown down the drain to no feasible effect.
While expressing serious emotion and enthusiasm for the withdrawal, the President has not clarified his position on whether special forces and private military contractors will remain. It is unlikely whether the public will be made aware of the position of elite forces activities in and around Afghanistan. Additionally, the question of whether Biden will succumb to establishment forces in Washington with a ‘diet’ withdrawal remains to be seen.
Nonetheless, it is time we leave Afghanistan. The signature aims of the military operation have been achieved. The sanctuary for terrorists has been destroyed and bin Laden has been dead for a decade. The continuation of our military presence changes very little should the withdrawal occur later. Yet, we will be forced to pay the human and economic bill, as more lives are lost and more money is arbitrarily spent if the occupation persists.